Economic Reports Last Week

October 3rd, 2011

Last week the number of NEGATIVE developments equaled POSITIVE developments, and the stock markets gyrated sharply as a result

Positives:
1) Only a few more countries left to approve EFSF, moment of truth soon arriving for Greek bondholders past the debt exchange currently being done
2) Greece takes another step in getting next tranche with property tax hike
3) Chicago PMI surprises to upside likely led by auto sector
4) Final Sept Univ of Michigan confidence rises almost 3 pts from depressed Aug level, one yr inflation expectations fall to lowest since Dec as gasoline prices drop to cheapest since Mar
5) Aug Durable Goods better than feared, core cap ex component up 1.1%
6) Initial Claims fall below 400k BUT seasonal adjustment issues make it faulty
7) Aug Pending Home Sales fall 1.2% but a touch less than estimated
8) Refi apps rise 11.2% to most since Nov
9) China HSBC final mfr’g index at 49.9, a bit better than preliminary reading of 49.4 and flat with Aug

Negatives:
1) Germans will fight tooth and nail a further leveraging of the EFSF
2) Greece hikes property taxes, step closer to economic ruin and bankruptcy
3) Euro zone Economic Confidence falls to lowest since Dec ’09
4) German IFO at lowest since Jan but slightly better than expected, Aug Retail Sales down 2.9% m/o/m
5) Shanghai index falls to lowest since July ’10
6) US New Home Sales fall to lowest since Feb
7) Within confidence data, those that said jobs were Hard to Get rose to most since 1983
8) REAL Income growth down .3% and REAL Spending flat in Aug
9) Ingersoll-Rand earnings guidance a canary in the old earnings mine? (Source: The Big Picture).

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